Sport Recife 1-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Sport Recife take on Fluminense.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Fluminense travel to Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho to take on Sport Recife. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 July 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's home record at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Fluminense — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 1W 3D 1L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fluminense are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
Fluminense in-play tendencies (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 30% | Fluminense 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 20% | Fluminense 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.54 xG and Fluminense 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.608 / defence 0.964 | Fluminense attack 0.783 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.046. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.608 is below the league average — the 0.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Sport Recife games / 10 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 22% | Draw 41% | Fluminense 37%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 4.55 | Draw 2.44 | Fluminense 2.70. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 15% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.33. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 85% probability — total xG of 1.33 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 22% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 15% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 23%. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 0% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 22% | Draw 41% | Fluminense 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 15% | BTTS 23% | xG Sport Recife 0.54 / Fluminense 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.608 / def 0.964 | Fluminense attack 0.783 / def 0.961 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.54
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Fluminense xG
23%
BTTS
39%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
5%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Fluminense kick off?
Sport Recife vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Fluminense?
Sport Recife 1 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Sport Recife vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Fluminense part of?
Sport Recife vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 22% chance of winning, Fluminense a 37% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Sport Recife and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 15%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fluminense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sport Recife and Fluminense in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Fluminense (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.61x the league average against Fluminense's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fluminense's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 28.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (19.5%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 60% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
22%
4.56
41%
2.46
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
26.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.54
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.33
0.79
Fluminense xG
4.56
22%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
38%
Over 1.5
2.63
62%
Under 1.5
1.61
15%
Over 2.5
6.67
85%
Under 2.5
1.18
5%
Over 3.5
20.00
95%
Under 3.5
1.05
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.26
77%
BTTS No
1.31
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
59%
1.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 26.6 | 21.0 | 8.3 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 28.0%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 0.54 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.79 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 1W 4D 5L from 10 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 2L across 10 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fluminense by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sport Recife heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 1W 2D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sport Recife are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.80 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fluminense in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 games (0.70 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Fluminense away?
Fluminense's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.00 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fluminense in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sport Recife and Fluminense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sport Recife's record when hosting Fluminense specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sport Recife
1
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Fluminense?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 0, Fluminense have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2025, when Sport Recife 2-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Fluminense?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sport Recife are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Fluminense tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 0% BTTS, Fluminense 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Sport Recife and 25% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Sport Recife have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 50% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sport Recife's recent games and 25% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sport Recife and Fluminense tend to score early?
Sport Recife have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Sport Recife 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Sport Recife 1-2 at Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.54 xG and Fluminense 0.79 xG, a combined 1.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.61 / defence 0.96 against Fluminense attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 22% | Draw 41% | Fluminense 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fluminense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 15%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 39% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 20%, Fluminense 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fluminense's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.