Gremio 0-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Internacional at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Gremio welcome Internacional to Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 July 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 0W 2D 6L from 8 Serie A matches — 0.25 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 0W 2D 2L at Arena do Grêmio — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Internacional — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Internacional are 0.75 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.25), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
Internacional in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 25% versus Internacional 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 25% | Internacional 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.85 xG and Internacional 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.677 / defence 1.123 | Internacional attack 0.938 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.040. Gremio's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Internacional bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Gremio games / 10 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 27% | Draw 32% | Internacional 40%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 25% | Internacional 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jul 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 27% | Draw 32% | Internacional 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Gremio 0.85 / Internacional 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.677 / def 1.123 | Internacional attack 0.938 / def 1.383 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Internacional (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Internacional xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Internacional kick off?
Gremio vs Internacional kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 10 July 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Internacional?
Gremio 0 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Gremio vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Internacional part of?
Gremio vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 27% chance of winning, Internacional a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gremio and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Internacional in?
Gremio (all comps): 0W-2D-6L in 8 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Internacional (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gremio's attack at 0.68x the league average against Internacional's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
27%
3.64
32%
3.09
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.95
1.09
Internacional xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.89
17%
5.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.6 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Gremio and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gremio and 1.09 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gremio's recent record stands at 0W 2D 6L from 8 games, a 0.25 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Internacional by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gremio heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Internacional's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.12 PPG overall record — Internacional travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Internacional come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gremio are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 0.88 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Internacional in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Internacional in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 0W 2D 6L in their last 8 games (0.25 PPG), while Internacional have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Internacional away?
Internacional's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 0.50 PPG; Internacional away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gremio and Internacional runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gremio's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Gremio
3
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Internacional 0-0 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 25%, Internacional 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Gremio and 25% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Gremio's recent matches and 75% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Gremio's recent games and 25% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Internacional tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Internacional in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gremio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 11, as Gremio and Internacional drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.85 xG and Internacional 1.09 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gremio fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Internacional landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.68 / defence 1.12 against Internacional attack 0.94 / defence 1.38, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 27% | Draw 32% | Internacional 40%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 25%, Internacional 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Internacional's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.