Atletico Goianiense 1-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Goianiense at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Goianiense host Sport Recife at Estádio Antônio Accioly in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 7 July 2021 at 23:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Goianiense have gone 4W 1D 3L from 8 outings — a 1.62 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 0.88 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 8 games (62%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Atletico Goianiense have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
Sport Recife — All Games: 1W 3D 5L from 9 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.67 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.44 per game is modest, conceding 0.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atletico Goianiense carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.95 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.62 vs 0.67. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Atletico Goianiense in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time.
Sport Recife in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Atletico Goianiense 25% | Sport Recife 12%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Goianiense 25% | Sport Recife 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Goianiense 0.88 xG and Sport Recife 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.824 / defence 0.829 | Sport Recife attack 0.672 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.031. Data: 8 Atletico Goianiense games / 9 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 41% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 22%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Goianiense 2.44 | Draw 2.70 | Sport Recife 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Goianiense as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.46 combined xG gives a 18% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 26% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Goianiense 0% | Sport Recife 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Antônio Accioly • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jul 2021, 23:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Goianiense 41% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 26% | xG Atletico Goianiense 0.88 / Sport Recife 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Goianiense attack 0.824 / def 0.829 | Sport Recife attack 0.672 / def 1.148 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Atletico Goianiense xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Sport Recife xG
26%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife kick off?
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife kicked off at 23:15 on Wednesday 7 July 2021 at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What was the final score in Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Atletico Goianiense 1 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Antônio Accioly.
What competition is Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife part of?
Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Goianiense a 41% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 22% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife in?
Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 0.88 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 0.89 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atletico Goianiense's attack rating (0.82) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Atletico Goianiense's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.0%), 1-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
41%
2.47
37%
2.69
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Atletico Goianiense xG
Total xG
1.46
0.57
Sport Recife xG
2.47
41%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.86
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.2 | 13.4 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.8%.
How many goals are Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Atletico Goianiense and 0.57 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Goianiense come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 1D 3L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atletico Goianiense's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Goianiense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Goianiense are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Atletico Goianiense have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Sport Recife in 12%.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their games; Sport Recife in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Atletico Goianiense have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Goianiense at home or Sport Recife away?
Atletico Goianiense's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Goianiense at home: 1.75 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Atletico Goianiense or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Goianiense have kept a clean sheet in 62% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Atletico Goianiense
1
Draws
1
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, Sport Recife have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Sport Recife 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Goianiense tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sport Recife tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Atletico Goianiense 0% BTTS, Sport Recife 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Atletico Goianiense and 25% for Sport Recife.
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Atletico Goianiense have failed to score in 50% of games; Sport Recife in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Goianiense home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Goianiense play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Atletico Goianiense's recent matches and 25% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atletico Goianiense vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Atletico Goianiense's recent games and 25% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Atletico Goianiense have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Goianiense and Sport Recife finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Antônio Accioly, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Goianiense 0.88 xG and Sport Recife 0.57 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Goianiense attack 0.82 / defence 0.83 against Sport Recife attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 8/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Goianiense 41% | Draw 37% | Sport Recife 22%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 19% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Goianiense 25%, Sport Recife 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 19%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.
Sport Recife's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Goianiense arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.