Cuiaba 2-2 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cuiaba take on Ceara.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ceara make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 July 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cuiaba have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 0W 1D 2L at Arena Pantanal — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Ceara's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara's away record: 0W 4D 1L from 5 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 5 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Ceara are the stronger side — 0.78 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.62). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Ceara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 38% versus Ceara 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 25% | Ceara 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.72 xG and Ceara 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.778 / defence 1.410 | Ceara attack 0.555 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 1.046. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 Cuiaba games / 10 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 37% | Ceara 34%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Ceara 2.94. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.53. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.53 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 33% | Ceara 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 29% | Draw 37% | Ceara 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Cuiaba 0.72 / Ceara 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.778 / def 1.410 | Ceara attack 0.555 / def 1.013 | league avg home 0.911 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ceara xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Ceara kick off?
Cuiaba vs Ceara kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Cuiaba 2 - 2 Ceara.
Where is Cuiaba vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Ceara part of?
Cuiaba vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 29% chance of winning, Ceara a 34% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Cuiaba and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Ceara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Ceara in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 0W-5D-3L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Ceara (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. Flip it around — Ceara's attack (0.56x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.50
37%
2.70
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.53
0.82
Ceara xG
3.50
29%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.44
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
49%
2.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.5 | 17.6 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.82 for Ceara, a combined total of 1.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cuiaba come into this having played 8 games, going 0W 5D 3L for 0.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-D. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ceara sit at 1.38 PPG from 8 outings (2W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ceara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Cuiaba's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Ceara have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cuiaba are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.88 scored and 0.62 conceded.
Defensively: Ceara in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Ceara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Ceara in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Ceara have gone 2W 5D 1L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Ceara away?
Ceara's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 0.33 PPG; Ceara away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ceara in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ceara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
3
Draws
1
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Ceara?
From 4 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Ceara have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when Ceara 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Ceara see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Cuiaba) and 33% (Ceara) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cuiaba and 0% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Ceara in 67%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 67% of games; Ceara in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 33% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cuiaba's recent games and 0% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Ceara tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Ceara in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Ceara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 11, as Cuiaba and Ceara drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.72 xG and Ceara 0.82 xG, a combined 1.53. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ceara outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 1.41 against Ceara attack 0.56 / defence 1.01, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 29% | Draw 37% | Ceara 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 25%, Ceara 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Ceara's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ceara arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.