America Mineiro 0-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as America Mineiro take on Sport Recife.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Raimundo Sampaio plays host to America Mineiro versus Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Tuesday 20 July 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, America Mineiro have posted 1W 3D 2L at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
Sport Recife (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for America Mineiro, 0.60 for Sport Recife — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Sport Recife half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 36% versus Sport Recife 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 27% | Sport Recife 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 0.81 xG and Sport Recife 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.760 / defence 0.989 | Sport Recife attack 0.682 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 0.895 / away 1.129. America Mineiro's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 America Mineiro games / 11 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 34% | Draw 36% | Sport Recife 31%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Sport Recife 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 33% | Sport Recife 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Jul 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 34% | Draw 36% | Sport Recife 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG America Mineiro 0.81 / Sport Recife 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.760 / def 0.989 | Sport Recife attack 0.682 / def 1.189 | league avg home 0.895 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Sport Recife xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Sport Recife kick off?
America Mineiro vs Sport Recife kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 20 July 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?
America Mineiro 0 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is America Mineiro vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Sport Recife part of?
America Mineiro vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 34% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both America Mineiro and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Sport Recife in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
America Mineiro's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.68x) against America Mineiro's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.98
36%
2.80
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.57
0.76
Sport Recife xG
2.98
34%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.8 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.76 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 2W 3D 6L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife's form line: 1W 4D 6L from 11 games, 0.64 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.82 PPG for America Mineiro against 0.64 for Sport Recife. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
America Mineiro are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.55 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 games (0.82 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Sport Recife away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.00 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
0
Draws
1
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Sport Recife?
From 2 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Sport Recife have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2021, when Sport Recife 2-3 America Mineiro.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 33%, Sport Recife 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for America Mineiro and 33% for Sport Recife.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 50% of games; Sport Recife in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 50% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of America Mineiro's recent games and 33% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Sport Recife defy the odds to beat America Mineiro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat America Mineiro 0-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 0.81 xG and Sport Recife 0.76 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. America Mineiro fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.76 / defence 0.99 against Sport Recife attack 0.68 / defence 1.19, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 34% | Draw 36% | Sport Recife 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sport Recife win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 27% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 27%, Sport Recife 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sport Recife's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 0.82 PPG, Sport Recife 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sport Recife win broke the near-deadlock. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.