America Mineiro 3-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates America Mineiro at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Gremio travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 November 2021, 21:30 UTC.
Form Guide
America Mineiro — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, America Mineiro have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Gremio have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gremio away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
America Mineiro are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. America Mineiro's 30% rate and Gremio's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for America Mineiro, 0 for Gremio and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gremio in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 47% versus Gremio 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 23% | Gremio 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.17 xG and Gremio 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.913 / defence 0.957 | Gremio attack 0.651 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 0.960 / away 0.926. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 America Mineiro games / 30 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 50% | Draw 32% | Gremio 18%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.00 | Draw 3.12 | Gremio 5.56. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, America Mineiro are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 30% | Gremio 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 50% | Draw 32% | Gremio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 31% | xG America Mineiro 1.17 / Gremio 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.913 / def 0.957 | Gremio attack 0.651 / def 1.336 | league avg home 0.960 / away 0.926 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Gremio xG
31%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Gremio kick off?
America Mineiro vs Gremio kicked off at 21:30 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Gremio?
America Mineiro 3 - 1 Gremio.
Where is America Mineiro vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Gremio part of?
America Mineiro vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 50% chance of winning, Gremio a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both America Mineiro and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Gremio in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.91) and Gremio's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.9%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
50%
2.00
32%
3.11
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.75
0.58
Gremio xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.26
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
56%
1.78
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
6%
18.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 10.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.58 for Gremio, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, America Mineiro have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 10W 11D 9L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 8W 5D 17L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, America Mineiro are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, America Mineiro have posted 1.53 PPG from 15 outings (6W 5D 4L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 12L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
America Mineiro are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.87 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Gremio in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Gremio have gone 8W 5D 17L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Gremio away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.53 PPG; Gremio away: 0.60 PPG.
Have America Mineiro or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
America Mineiro have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gremio in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between America Mineiro and Gremio runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gremio have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
America Mineiro's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
1
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Gremio?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Gremio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when America Mineiro 3-4 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — America Mineiro 33% BTTS, Gremio 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 13% for America Mineiro and 27% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 40% of games; Gremio in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 27% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 13% of America Mineiro's recent games and 27% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Gremio tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Gremio in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gremio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Gremio 3-1 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.17 xG and Gremio 0.58 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. America Mineiro beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Gremio attack 0.65 / defence 1.34, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 50% | Draw 32% | Gremio 18%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 23%, Gremio 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, America Mineiro arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.