Cuiaba 0-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cuiaba at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Cuiaba welcome Chapecoense-sc to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 November 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cuiaba have posted 4W 3D 3L at Arena Pantanal — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Cuiaba have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cuiaba, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2021, ended 3–2 with Cuiaba winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cuiaba trading profile (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Chapecoense-sc trading profile (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 45% versus Chapecoense-sc 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 38% | Chapecoense-sc 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.24 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.823 / defence 1.155 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.768 / defence 1.592. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 0.977. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.592 — this is suppressing Cuiaba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Cuiaba games / 29 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 44% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 25%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Chapecoense-sc 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 40% | Chapecoense-sc 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 44% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cuiaba 1.24 / Chapecoense-sc 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.823 / def 1.155 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.768 / def 1.592 | league avg home 0.945 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Chapecoense-sc xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 44% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.82) and Chapecoense-sc's defence rating (1.59), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
44%
2.28
31%
3.21
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.10
0.87
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
13.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.87 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba come into this having played 29 games, going 8W 14D 7L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Chapecoense-sc sit at 0.45 PPG from 29 outings (1W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Cuiaba carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cuiaba's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Chapecoense-sc have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.83 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc in 62%.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Chapecoense-sc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 8W 14D 7L in their last 29 games (1.31 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 10D 18L in their last 29 (0.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.33 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.53 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Chapecoense-sc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Chapecoense-sc in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 5 November 2021, when Cuiaba 0-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 47%, Chapecoense-sc 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cuiaba) and 53% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 33% of games; Chapecoense-sc in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Cuiaba's games and 67% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cuiaba vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cuiaba's recent games and 53% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Chapecoense-sc finished level at 0-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.24 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.87 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Chapecoense-sc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.77 / defence 1.59, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 44% | Draw 31% | Chapecoense-sc 25%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 38%, Chapecoense-sc 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cuiaba arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.