Ceara 2-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ceara at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sport Recife make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Ceara in Serie A, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Ceara (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ceara's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Sport Recife's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sport Recife's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Ceara against 1.30 for Sport Recife. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ceara 0W, Sport Recife 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Ceara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sport Recife goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 52% versus Sport Recife 23%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ceara 36% | Sport Recife 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.13 xG and Sport Recife 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.902 / defence 0.945 | Sport Recife attack 0.599 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 0.944. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Ceara's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Ceara games / 32 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 50% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 17%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.00 | Draw 3.03 | Sport Recife 5.88. Ceara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ceara if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 40% | Sport Recife 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 50% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 28% | xG Ceara 1.13 / Sport Recife 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.902 / def 0.945 | Sport Recife attack 0.599 / def 1.267 | league avg home 0.986 / away 0.944 • Poisson stance: Ceara (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Sport Recife xG
28%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Sport Recife kick off?
Ceara vs Sport Recife kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 14 November 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Ceara 2 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Ceara vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Sport Recife part of?
Ceara vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 50% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Ceara and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Sport Recife?
Record (1 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 1 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Ceara and Sport Recife in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ceara's attack rating (0.90) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.60x) against Ceara's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.9%), 1-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
50%
2.01
33%
3.02
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.66
0.54
Sport Recife xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.52
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
59%
1.71
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 10.2 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.4 | 11.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.5%.
How many goals are Ceara and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Ceara and 0.54 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ceara's recent record stands at 8W 15D 8L from 31 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Sport Recife, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 16L across 31 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Ceara against 0.94 for Sport Recife. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ceara have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sport Recife's away record stands at 3W 3D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ceara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ceara are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.55 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 23%.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Sport Recife in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Sport Recife
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 8W 15D 8L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 7W 8D 16L in their last 31 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Sport Recife away?
Ceara's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.80 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Ceara or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ceara
2
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 2, Sport Recife have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2025, when Sport Recife 1-1 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Sport Recife?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ceara see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 47%, Sport Recife 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ceara and 33% for Sport Recife.
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Sport Recife in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ceara's recent matches and 27% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ceara vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ceara's recent games and 33% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Ceara edge out Sport Recife 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.13 xG and Sport Recife 0.54 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Sport Recife attack 0.60 / defence 1.27, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 50% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 17%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 36%, Sport Recife 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sport Recife's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ceara 1.26 PPG, Sport Recife 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.