Cuiaba 2-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cuiaba face Fortaleza EC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cuiaba welcome Fortaleza EC to Arena Pantanal in Serie A (matchday 34). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cuiaba have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Cuiaba at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortaleza EC stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.50 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Cuiaba, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Cuiaba 1–0 Fortaleza EC — a Cuiaba win.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Fortaleza EC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 33% | Fortaleza EC 39%). Note also that Fortaleza EC surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while Cuiaba recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.11 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.816 / defence 1.013 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.770 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.095. Fortaleza EC's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Cuiaba's last 71 games and Fortaleza EC's last 69.
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 41% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 28%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.43 | Draw 3.19 | Fortaleza EC 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cuiaba's last 10 home games and Fortaleza EC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 0.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cuiaba 40% (last 10 home games) | Fortaleza EC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, matchday 34 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 41% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Cuiaba 1.11 / Fortaleza EC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.816 / def 1.013 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.770 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Fortaleza EC xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC FAQs
What time does Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Cuiaba 2 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC is a Serie A fixture (matchday 34) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 41% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Fortaleza EC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cuiaba's last 71 games and Fortaleza EC's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.19
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.97
0.85
Fortaleza EC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.85 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 21W 19D 29L from 69 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 17D 25L across 69 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.19 PPG, Fortaleza EC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 10W 14D 10L from their last 34 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 12W 5D 17L across their last 34 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.17 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Cuiaba (Home) vs Fortaleza EC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cuiaba
Current Season
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
❓ Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Form FAQs
What form are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 21W 19D 29L in their last 69 games (1.19 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 17D 25L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.29 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won Cuiaba 5-0 Fortaleza EC.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Cuiaba
1
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cuiaba have won 5, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2024: Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Fortaleza EC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cuiaba) and 41% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 29% of games; Fortaleza EC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cuiaba vs Fortaleza EC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 47% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cuiaba's recent games and 41% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Fortaleza EC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 68% of Fortaleza EC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cuiaba edge out Fortaleza EC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.11 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cuiaba beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.77 / defence 1.02, drawn from 71/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 41% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 28%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 33%, Fortaleza EC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.19 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.