Fortaleza EC 2-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A (matchday 35). Kick-off is Sunday 26 November 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Fortaleza EC stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have recorded 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Palmeiras 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Jul 2023, ended Fortaleza EC 1–3 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 46% versus Palmeiras 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 40% | Palmeiras 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortaleza EC surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.36 xG and Palmeiras 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.021 / defence 1.095 | Palmeiras attack 1.171 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.099. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 72 games and Palmeiras's last 72.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 36% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.80 | Draw 3.82 | Palmeiras 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Fortaleza EC's last 10 home games and Palmeiras's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 50% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 35 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 36% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.36 / Palmeiras 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.021 / def 1.095 | Palmeiras attack 1.171 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Palmeiras xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 2 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 35) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 36% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.02) and Palmeiras's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 72 games and Palmeiras's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.82
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.41
Palmeiras xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.41 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 27W 18D 27L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 41W 20D 11L from 72 games, 1.99 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortaleza EC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 36 home games (15W 13D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 14D 6L from their last 36 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.69 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 18D 27L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 41W 20D 11L in their last 72 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.61 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 21 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 4-0 Fortaleza EC.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 September 2025: Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, Palmeiras 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Fortaleza EC) and 44% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 47% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 44% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 67% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 35, as Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.36 xG and Palmeiras 1.41 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Palmeiras attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 36% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 40%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.