Fortaleza EC 2-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 2 for Palmeiras and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 46% versus Palmeiras 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 40% | Palmeiras 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.36 xG and Palmeiras 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.021 / defence 1.095 | Palmeiras attack 1.171 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.099. Data: 72 Fortaleza EC games / 72 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 36% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 38%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 50% | Palmeiras 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 36% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.36 / Palmeiras 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.021 / def 1.095 | Palmeiras attack 1.171 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Palmeiras xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 2 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 36% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Record (5 meetings): Fortaleza EC 2W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 2W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.02) and Palmeiras's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
36%
2.80
26%
3.82
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.41
Palmeiras xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.45
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.41 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 27W 18D 27L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 41W 20D 11L from 72 games, 1.99 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortaleza EC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (15W 13D 8L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 14D 6L from 36 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.69 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 27W 18D 27L in their last 72 games (1.38 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 41W 20D 11L in their last 72 (1.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.61 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 42%, Palmeiras 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Fortaleza EC) and 44% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 47% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 44% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 35, as Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.36 xG and Palmeiras 1.41 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against Palmeiras attack 1.17 / defence 1.01, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 36% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 38%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 40%, Palmeiras 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.99 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.