Goias 0-1 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cruzeiro at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Goias vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Goias and Cruzeiro meet at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Goias's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Goias's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cruzeiro (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cruzeiro's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Goias, 1.20 for Cruzeiro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Goias 1W, Cruzeiro 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Goias winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Goias goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cruzeiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Goias 47% versus Cruzeiro 26%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Goias 29% | Cruzeiro 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Goias 0.82 xG and Cruzeiro 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Goias attack 0.816 / defence 1.193 | Cruzeiro attack 0.785 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.097. Cruzeiro's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 72 Goias games / 34 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Goias 28% | Draw 33% | Cruzeiro 39%. Fair-value odds: Goias 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Cruzeiro 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cruzeiro are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cruzeiro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Goias 40% | Cruzeiro 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Goias vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Goias 28% | Draw 33% | Cruzeiro 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Goias 0.82 / Cruzeiro 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Goias attack 0.816 / def 1.193 | Cruzeiro attack 0.785 / def 0.771 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Cruzeiro (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Goias xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cruzeiro xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Goias vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Goias vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What was the final score in Goias vs Cruzeiro?
Goias 0 - 1 Cruzeiro.
Where is Goias vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro.
What competition is Goias vs Cruzeiro part of?
Goias vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Goias vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Goias a 28% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cruzeiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Goias vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Goias and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Goias vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Goias 1W | Draws 0 | Cruzeiro 0W.
What form are Goias and Cruzeiro in?
Goias (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Cruzeiro (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Goias's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (0.79x) against Goias's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cruzeiro Win
28%
3.57
33%
3.06
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Goias xG
Total xG
1.85
1.03
Cruzeiro xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
17%
5.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 16.2 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Goias vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Goias and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Goias and 1.03 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Goias vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Goias have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 11D 15L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Cruzeiro's form line: 10W 11D 13L from 34 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Goias against 1.21 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Goias have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L).
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Goias are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.94 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 26%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Goias
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Goias and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Goias have gone 8W 11D 15L in their last 34 games (1.03 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Goias at home or Cruzeiro away?
Cruzeiro's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Goias at home: 1.12 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Goias or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Goias have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Goias
0
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Goias and Cruzeiro?
From 2 meetings on record, Goias have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Goias and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 28 November 2023, when Goias 0-1 Cruzeiro.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Goias see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Goias 47%, Cruzeiro 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Goias) and 41% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 47%; Goias have failed to score in 41% of games; Cruzeiro in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Goias home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Goias play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Goias's recent matches and 24% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Goias vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Goias's recent games and 41% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Cruzeiro edge out Goias 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Goias 0-1 at Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Goias 0.82 xG and Cruzeiro 1.03 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Goias fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Goias attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Cruzeiro attack 0.79 / defence 0.77, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Goias 28% | Draw 33% | Cruzeiro 39%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Goias 29%, Cruzeiro 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Goias's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Goias 1.03 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Goias (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.