Fortaleza EC 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Palmeiras at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 0 for Palmeiras and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 3–2 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 42% versus Palmeiras 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 48% | Palmeiras 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.91 xG and Palmeiras 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.883 / defence 1.486 | Palmeiras attack 1.179 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 0.942. Data: 33 Fortaleza EC games / 33 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 21% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 55%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Palmeiras 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 21% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.91 / Palmeiras 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.883 / def 1.486 | Palmeiras attack 1.179 / def 1.063 | league avg home 0.967 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Palmeiras xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 21% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 1W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.88) and Palmeiras's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
21%
4.85
24%
4.08
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.56
1.65
Palmeiras xG
4.85
21%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
4%
25.28
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.65 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 14W 7D 12L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 18W 4D 11L from 33 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.48 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (8W 4D 4L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 8W 2D 6L from 16 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.58 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 14W 7D 12L in their last 33 games (1.48 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 18W 4D 11L in their last 33 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Palmeiras away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.75 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2022, when Palmeiras won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortaleza EC
3
Draws
4
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 3, Palmeiras have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Palmeiras 4-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 31%, Palmeiras 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fortaleza EC) and 56% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Palmeiras in 44%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 44% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 56% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.91 xG and Palmeiras 1.65 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.88 / defence 1.49 against Palmeiras attack 1.18 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 21% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 55%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Fortaleza EC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 48%, Palmeiras 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.48 PPG, Palmeiras 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.