Chapecoense-sc 1-3 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chapecoense-sc have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Arena Condá this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gremio's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gremio are 0.50 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc in recent Serie A fixtures (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Chapecoense-sc, 1 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Chapecoense-sc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Gremio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 59% versus Gremio 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 44% | Gremio 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.13 xG and Gremio 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.800 / defence 1.586 | Gremio attack 0.676 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 0.942. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Chapecoense-sc games / 32 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 38% | Draw 30% | Gremio 32%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Gremio 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Chapecoense-sc 70% | Gremio 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 38% | Draw 30% | Gremio 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.13 / Gremio 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.800 / def 1.586 | Gremio attack 0.676 / def 1.466 | league avg home 0.967 / away 0.942 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gremio xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 3 Gremio.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 38% chance of winning, Gremio a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Gremio in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.80x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.68x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 33/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
38%
2.61
30%
3.39
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Gremio xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
10%
9.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.01 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.47 PPG on a 1W 12D 19L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 9W 5D 18L from 32 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Gremio are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.40 PPG from 15 outings (0W 6D 9L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 3W 0D 12L from 15 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.94 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Gremio in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 12D 19L in their last 32 games (0.47 PPG), while Gremio have gone 9W 5D 18L in their last 32 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Gremio away?
Gremio's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.40 PPG; Gremio away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Gremio have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 60%, Gremio 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Chapecoense-sc and 27% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 40% of games; Gremio in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 27% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 27% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Gremio tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gremio in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Chapecoense-sc 1-3 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.13 xG and Gremio 1.01 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.80 / defence 1.59 against Gremio attack 0.68 / defence 1.47, drawn from 33/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 38% | Draw 30% | Gremio 32%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 44%, Gremio 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.