Bahia 2-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Atletico Paranaense meet at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Friday 25 June 2021 at 01:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 0.75 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.867 / defence 0.930 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.053 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 0.929 / away 1.013. Data: 5 Bahia games / 4 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 27% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 40%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.70 | Draw 3.03 | Atletico Paranaense 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Bahia's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.74 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jun 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 27% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Bahia 0.75 / Atletico Paranaense 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.867 / def 0.930 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.053 / def 0.926 | league avg home 0.929 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Atletico Paranaense xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 01:30 on Friday 25 June 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Bahia 2 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 27% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 40% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bahia and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Atletico Paranaense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bahia's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Atletico Paranaense's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.05x) against Bahia's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
27%
3.76
33%
3.01
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.74
0.99
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.6 | 17.4 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.3%.
How many goals are Bahia and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Bahia and 0.99 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bahia
2
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2026, when Bahia 3-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Atletico Paranaense?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Atletico Paranaense 2-1 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 0.75 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.99 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 27% | Draw 33% | Atletico Paranaense 40%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bahia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.