Juventude 1-1 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Sao Paulo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Alfredo Jaconi plays host to Juventude versus Sao Paulo in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Juventude's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juventude have posted 4W 2D 3L at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi — 1.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sao Paulo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo's away record: 3W 2D 4L from 9 road trips in Serie A this season (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Juventude half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sao Paulo half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 38% versus Sao Paulo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 31% | Sao Paulo 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.03 xG and Sao Paulo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.900 / defence 1.121 | Sao Paulo attack 0.787 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 0.872 / away 1.098. Sao Paulo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.306 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Juventude games / 17 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 36% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 33%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Sao Paulo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juventude as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 33% | Sao Paulo 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 36% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Juventude 1.03 / Sao Paulo 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.900 / def 1.121 | Sao Paulo attack 0.787 / def 1.306 | league avg home 0.872 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Juventude (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sao Paulo xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Juventude vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Juventude 1 - 1 Sao Paulo.
Where is Juventude vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Sao Paulo part of?
Juventude vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 36% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Juventude and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juventude and Sao Paulo in?
Juventude (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juventude's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.79x) against Juventude's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.24
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Juventude xG
Total xG
2.00
0.97
Sao Paulo xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Juventude and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Juventude and 0.97 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juventude's recent record stands at 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sao Paulo, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 6L across 16 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Juventude against 1.25 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juventude have managed 4W 2D 3L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sao Paulo's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juventude are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.88 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Sao Paulo away?
Juventude's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.56 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Juventude or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sao Paulo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
3
Draws
4
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Sao Paulo have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Sao Paulo 2-1 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Sao Paulo?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juventude see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Juventude) and 33% (Sao Paulo) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Juventude and 22% for Sao Paulo.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 33%; Sao Paulo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Sao Paulo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Juventude's recent matches and 33% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 22% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juventude and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude and Sao Paulo finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.03 xG and Sao Paulo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.12 against Sao Paulo attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 36% | Draw 31% | Sao Paulo 33%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 31%, Sao Paulo 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (16 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (16 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.25 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.