Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atletico Goianiense make the trip to Arena da Baixada to face Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 June 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 0.80 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.942 / defence 1.039 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.844 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 0.817 / away 1.023. Data: 3 Atletico Paranaense games / 3 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 34% | Atletico Goianiense 36%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Atletico Goianiense 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Atletico Paranaense's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Goianiense at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 34% | Atletico Goianiense 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Atletico Paranaense 0.80 / Atletico Goianiense 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.942 / def 1.039 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.844 / def 1.033 | league avg home 0.817 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Atletico Goianiense xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 30% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 0.94x the league average against Atletico Goianiense's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.84x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
30%
3.32
34%
2.93
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
1.69
0.90
Atletico Goianiense xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 16.5 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.90 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Atletico Goianiense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atletico Paranaense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 4-1 on 20 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
0
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, Atletico Goianiense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Atletico Goianiense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Atletico Goianiense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Atletico Paranaense defy the odds to beat Atletico Goianiense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Atletico Goianiense 2-1 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 0.80 xG and Atletico Goianiense 0.90 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 34% | Atletico Goianiense 36%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Atletico Paranaense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.