Fortaleza EC 0-4 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Fortaleza EC welcome Ceara to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 November 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fortaleza EC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ceara — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ceara have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Fortaleza EC) versus 1.30 (Ceara). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Ceara and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 1–3 with Ceara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortaleza EC trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ceara trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 44% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 47% | Ceara 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.24 xG and Ceara 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.952 / defence 1.238 | Ceara attack 0.698 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 0.983 / away 0.928. Ceara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Fortaleza EC games / 32 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 46% | Draw 30% | Ceara 24%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Ceara 4.17. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | Ceara 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Nov 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 46% | Draw 30% | Ceara 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.24 / Ceara 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.952 / def 1.238 | Ceara attack 0.698 / def 1.320 | league avg home 0.983 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ceara xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Ceara kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Ceara?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 4 Ceara.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Ceara part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 46% chance of winning, Ceara a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Ceara?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 0 | Ceara 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Ceara in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Ceara (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Ceara's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.31
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.80
Ceara xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 10.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.80 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Ceara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 14W 7D 11L from 32 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Ceara, meanwhile, have gone 9W 15D 8L across 32 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.53 PPG, Ceara on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ceara's away record stands at 0W 9D 6L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 0.97 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Ceara in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Ceara in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 14W 7D 11L in their last 32 games (1.53 PPG), while Ceara have gone 9W 15D 8L in their last 32 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Ceara away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.87 PPG; Ceara away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ceara in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Nov 2021, when Ceara won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
4
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 1, Ceara have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 6 November 2025, when Ceara 1-1 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 33%, Ceara 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fortaleza EC) and 33% (Ceara).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ceara in 33%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 27% of games; Ceara in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 53% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 33% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Ceara tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Ceara in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ceara run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Fortaleza EC 0-4 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.24 xG and Ceara 0.80 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ceara outscored their 0.80 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Ceara attack 0.70 / defence 1.32, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 46% | Draw 30% | Ceara 24%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Ceara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 47%, Ceara 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ceara's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.53 PPG, Ceara 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ceara (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.