Palmeiras 0-2 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Palmeiras welcome Sao Paulo to Allianz Parque. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 November 2021 at 23:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Allianz Parque, Palmeiras have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sao Paulo's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Palmeiras register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sao Paulo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 56% versus Sao Paulo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 59% | Sao Paulo 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.47 xG and Sao Paulo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.309 / defence 1.440 | Sao Paulo attack 0.675 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 0.948. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.309 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 32 Palmeiras games / 32 Sao Paulo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sao Paulo 4.35. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Palmeiras 60% | Sao Paulo 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Nov 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Palmeiras 1.47 / Sao Paulo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.309 / def 1.440 | Sao Paulo attack 0.675 / def 1.149 | league avg home 0.977 / away 0.948 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sao Paulo xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras 0 - 2 Sao Paulo.
Where is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo part of?
Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 50% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palmeiras and Sao Paulo will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Palmeiras and Sao Paulo in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sao Paulo (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Sao Paulo's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Sao Paulo's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.69
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.39
0.92
Sao Paulo xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
5%
18.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.92 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras come into this having played 32 games, going 18W 4D 10L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Sao Paulo sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (8W 14D 10L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palmeiras's home form reads 10W 2D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Sao Paulo have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (3W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 0.75 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Sao Paulo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 18W 4D 10L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 8W 14D 10L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Sao Paulo away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.00 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Sao Paulo specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 7, Sao Paulo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Sao Paulo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 69%, Sao Paulo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Palmeiras) and 19% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Sao Paulo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Palmeiras's games and 44% of Sao Paulo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Palmeiras's recent games and 19% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Sao Paulo tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Sao Paulo in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sao Paulo beat Palmeiras 0-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.47 xG and Sao Paulo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sao Paulo outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.31 / defence 1.44 against Sao Paulo attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 50% | Draw 27% | Sao Paulo 23%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Sao Paulo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 59%, Sao Paulo 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Sao Paulo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.