Fortaleza EC 1-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Fortaleza EC in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Thursday 14 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Fortaleza EC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortaleza EC have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Gremio have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.30 for Gremio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Fortaleza EC have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Gremio in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Fortaleza EC 0W, Gremio 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortaleza EC — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gremio — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 39% versus Gremio 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 39% | Gremio 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.14 xG and Gremio 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.908 / defence 1.292 | Gremio attack 0.713 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 0.914 / away 1.068. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Fortaleza EC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Fortaleza EC games / 23 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 37% | Draw 34% | Gremio 29%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Gremio 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 30% | Gremio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 37% | Draw 34% | Gremio 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.14 / Gremio 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.908 / def 1.292 | Gremio attack 0.713 / def 1.376 | league avg home 0.914 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Gremio xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Gremio kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Gremio kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 14 October 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Gremio?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Gremio part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 37% chance of winning, Gremio a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Gremio in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.91) and Gremio's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.71x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 25/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
37%
2.72
34%
2.90
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.13
0.98
Gremio xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.98 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortaleza EC come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 6D 8L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.00 PPG from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fortaleza EC's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (3W 0D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.87 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Gremio in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 9W 6D 8L in their last 23 games (1.43 PPG), while Gremio have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Gremio away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.64 PPG; Gremio away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Gremio in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
4
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Gremio?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Gremio have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Fortaleza EC 2-2 Gremio.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Fortaleza EC) and 27% (Gremio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Fortaleza EC and 27% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 36% of games; Gremio in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 27% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 27% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Gremio tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Gremio in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Gremio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Gremio 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.14 xG and Gremio 0.98 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.91 / defence 1.29 against Gremio attack 0.71 / defence 1.38, drawn from 25/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 37% | Draw 34% | Gremio 29%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 39%, Gremio 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.