Fortaleza EC 0-3 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Flamengo at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Flamengo — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Fortaleza EC have won 0, Flamengo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Flamengo in-play tendencies (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 43% versus Flamengo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 38% | Flamengo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 0.90 xG and Flamengo 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.001 / defence 1.200 | Flamengo attack 1.337 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 0.910 / away 1.059. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Fortaleza EC games / 21 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 18% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 54%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Flamengo 1.85. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fortaleza EC 30% | Flamengo 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 18% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortaleza EC 0.90 / Flamengo 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.001 / def 1.200 | Flamengo attack 1.337 / def 0.990 | league avg home 0.910 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Flamengo xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 9 October 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 3 Flamengo.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 18% chance of winning, Flamengo a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Record (1 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (1.00) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
18%
5.61
28%
3.58
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.70
Flamengo xG
5.61
18%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
3%
30.65
22%
4.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.6 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.70 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortaleza EC's recent record stands at 8W 6D 7L from 21 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 12W 3D 6L across 21 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortaleza EC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortaleza EC have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 5W 3D 1L across 9 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.90 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 games (1.43 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 12W 3D 6L in their last 21 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.67 PPG; Flamengo away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 4, Flamengo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 33%, Flamengo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Fortaleza EC) and 56% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Flamengo in 33%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 67% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 56% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Flamengo tend to score early?
Fortaleza EC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fortaleza EC 0-3 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 0.90 xG and Flamengo 1.70 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortaleza EC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Flamengo attack 1.34 / defence 0.99, drawn from 24/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 18% | Draw 28% | Flamengo 54%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 38%, Flamengo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.