Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fortaleza EC make the trip to Arena Condá to face Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Chapecoense-sc (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's home record at Arena Condá: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortaleza EC have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Chapecoense-sc against 1.10 for Fortaleza EC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chapecoense-sc lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 2–3 with Fortaleza EC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Chapecoense-sc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 65% versus Fortaleza EC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 46% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.90 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.800 / defence 1.513 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.960 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 1.049. Fortaleza EC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Chapecoense-sc's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Chapecoense-sc games / 26 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 20% | Draw 30% | Fortaleza EC 50%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 5.00 | Draw 3.33 | Fortaleza EC 2.00. Fortaleza EC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chapecoense-sc 60% | Fortaleza EC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 20% | Draw 30% | Fortaleza EC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.90 / Fortaleza EC 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.800 / def 1.513 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.960 / def 1.232 | league avg home 0.917 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Fortaleza EC xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC?
Chapecoense-sc 1 - 2 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 20% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 50% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC?
Record (1 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.80) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.96x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
20%
4.90
30%
3.36
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.43
1.52
Fortaleza EC xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
4%
22.46
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.4 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.52 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 1W 10D 15L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC's form line: 12W 6D 8L from 26 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortaleza EC are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.38 PPG from 13 outings (0W 5D 8L).
On the road, Fortaleza EC have gone 5W 3D 5L from 13 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 10D 15L in their last 26 games (0.50 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 12W 6D 8L in their last 26 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Fortaleza EC's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.38 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Fortaleza EC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Fortaleza EC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 54%, Fortaleza EC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Chapecoense-sc) and 46% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC in 38%; Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 54% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 46% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Chapecoense-sc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Chapecoense-sc 1-2 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.90 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.52 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.80 / defence 1.51 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.96 / defence 1.23, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 20% | Draw 30% | Fortaleza EC 50%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 46%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.