RB Bragantino 1-0 Atletico Goianiense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Atletico Goianiense at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 12 October 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
RB Bragantino (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, RB Bragantino have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atletico Goianiense have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Goianiense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Goianiense away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.20 for Atletico Goianiense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for RB Bragantino, 0 for Atletico Goianiense and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2021, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Atletico Goianiense half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 71% versus Atletico Goianiense 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 58% | Atletico Goianiense 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.07 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 1.104 / defence 1.324 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.904 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.087. Data: 24 RB Bragantino games / 24 Atletico Goianiense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 28% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 39%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico Goianiense 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Goianiense at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Goianiense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 80% | Atletico Goianiense 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 Oct 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 28% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG RB Bragantino 1.07 / Atletico Goianiense 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 1.104 / def 1.324 | Atletico Goianiense attack 0.904 / def 1.065 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Atletico Goianiense (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Atletico Goianiense xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense kicked off at 23:00 on Tuesday 12 October 2021 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Atletico Goianiense.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense part of?
RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 28% chance of winning, Atletico Goianiense a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Atletico Goianiense the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Goianiense 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Atletico Goianiense (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.10) and Atletico Goianiense's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.90x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Goianiense Win
28%
3.53
32%
3.10
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.38
1.30
Atletico Goianiense xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.30 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, RB Bragantino have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 9W 11D 4L record — D-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Goianiense's form line: 7W 10D 7L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Atletico Goianiense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.29 for Atletico Goianiense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RB Bragantino have posted 1.17 PPG from 12 outings (2W 8D 2L). That actually lags their 1.58 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Atletico Goianiense have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Atletico Goianiense are on 0.83 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atletico Goianiense in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Blended
Atletico Goianiense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 9W 11D 4L in their last 24 games (1.58 PPG), while Atletico Goianiense have gone 7W 10D 7L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Atletico Goianiense away?
Atletico Goianiense's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.17 PPG; Atletico Goianiense away: 1.50 PPG.
Have RB Bragantino or Atletico Goianiense been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Bragantino have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Atletico Goianiense in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RB Bragantino won 4-0 on 17 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Goianiense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
1
Atletico Goianiense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense?
From 6 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 4, Atletico Goianiense have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Atletico Goianiense 0-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atletico Goianiense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for RB Bragantino, 50% for Atletico Goianiense — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (RB Bragantino) and 50% (Atletico Goianiense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Goianiense in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Atletico Goianiense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Atletico Goianiense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of RB Bragantino's games and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Atletico Goianiense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 50% of Atletico Goianiense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Atletico Goianiense tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atletico Goianiense in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Atletico Goianiense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Atletico Goianiense 1-0 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.07 xG and Atletico Goianiense 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Goianiense landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.10 / defence 1.32 against Atletico Goianiense attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 28% | Draw 32% | Atletico Goianiense 39%, with Atletico Goianiense to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual RB Bragantino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 58%, Atletico Goianiense 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Goianiense's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.58 PPG, Atletico Goianiense 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Goianiense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.