Bahia 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Palmeiras travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 October 2021, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Bahia) versus 0.70 (Palmeiras). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bahia, 1 for Palmeiras and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2021, ended 2–3 with Palmeiras winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 42% versus Palmeiras 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 46% | Palmeiras 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.21 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.126 / defence 1.395 | Palmeiras attack 0.958 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 0.911 / away 1.079. Data: 24 Bahia games / 24 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 30% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 41%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Palmeiras 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Bahia 50% | Palmeiras 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Oct 2021, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 30% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Bahia 1.21 / Palmeiras 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.126 / def 1.395 | Palmeiras attack 0.958 / def 1.176 | league avg home 0.911 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Palmeiras xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Palmeiras kick off?
Bahia vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Wednesday 13 October 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Bahia vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Palmeiras part of?
Bahia vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bahia and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.13x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
30%
3.37
30%
3.37
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.65
1.44
Palmeiras xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
12%
8.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.2 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Bahia and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Bahia and 1.44 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 5D 12L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 12W 3D 9L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 5W 1D 5L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.54 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.27 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 46%, Palmeiras 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Bahia) and 54% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 46%; Bahia have failed to score in 36% of games; Palmeiras in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bahia's recent matches and 36% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Bahia's recent games and 54% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bahia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 26, as Bahia and Palmeiras drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.21 xG and Palmeiras 1.44 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.13 / defence 1.40 against Palmeiras attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 30% | Draw 30% | Palmeiras 41%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 46%, Palmeiras 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.