Sport Recife 1-0 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sport Recife vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Bahia travel to Itaipava Arena Pernambuco to take on Sport Recife. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 November 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sport Recife's home record at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bahia have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Sport Recife) versus 1.30 (Bahia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Sport Recife's 20% and Bahia's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sport Recife, 0 for Bahia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Sport Recife winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Bahia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sport Recife 26% | Bahia 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sport Recife 29% | Bahia 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 0.98 xG and Bahia 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.777 / defence 1.069 | Bahia attack 0.663 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 0.946. Sport Recife's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bahia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Sport Recife's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Sport Recife games / 31 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sport Recife 42% | Draw 34% | Bahia 24%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Bahia 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.65. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.65 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Bahia's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sport Recife at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 23% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 31%. Form rates corroborate: Sport Recife 20% | Bahia 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sport Recife vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Itaipava Arena Pernambuco • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sport Recife 42% | Draw 34% | Bahia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Sport Recife 0.98 / Bahia 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Sport Recife attack 0.777 / def 1.069 | Bahia attack 0.663 / def 1.300 | league avg home 0.967 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Sport Recife xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Bahia xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sport Recife vs Bahia kick off?
Sport Recife vs Bahia kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What was the final score in Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Sport Recife 1 - 0 Bahia.
Where is Sport Recife vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco.
What competition is Sport Recife vs Bahia part of?
Sport Recife vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Sport Recife a 42% chance of winning, Bahia a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Sport Recife and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Sport Recife vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Bahia?
Record (1 meetings): Sport Recife 1W | Draws 0 | Bahia 0W.
What form are Sport Recife and Bahia in?
Sport Recife (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bahia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sport Recife's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bahia's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bahia's attack versus Sport Recife's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 20.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.92
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Sport Recife xG
Total xG
1.65
0.67
Bahia xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.28
69%
BTTS No
1.44
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.3 | 12.9 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.9%.
How many goals are Sport Recife and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Sport Recife and 0.67 for Bahia, a combined total of 1.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sport Recife vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sport Recife's recent record stands at 7W 8D 16L from 31 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Bahia, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 13L across 31 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sport Recife on 0.94 PPG, Bahia on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sport Recife have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bahia's away record stands at 3W 4D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Sport Recife are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bahia are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bahia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sport Recife
Current Season
Bahia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sport Recife and Bahia in coming into this match?
Sport Recife have gone 7W 8D 16L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Bahia have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sport Recife at home or Bahia away?
Sport Recife's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sport Recife at home: 1.13 PPG; Bahia away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Sport Recife or Bahia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sport Recife have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bahia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sport Recife's record when hosting Bahia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sport Recife
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sport Recife and Bahia?
From 4 meetings on record, Sport Recife have won 2, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sport Recife and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2025, when Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Sport Recife and Bahia?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sport Recife see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Bahia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sport Recife 20% BTTS, Bahia 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Sport Recife and 33% for Bahia.
On the defensive side: Sport Recife keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Bahia in 33%; Sport Recife have failed to score in 60% of games; Bahia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sport Recife home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sport Recife play Bahia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sport Recife's recent matches and 27% of Bahia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sport Recife vs Bahia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Sport Recife's recent games and 33% of Bahia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sport Recife edge out Bahia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Bahia 1-0 at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sport Recife 0.98 xG and Bahia 0.67 xG, a combined 1.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sport Recife attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Bahia attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sport Recife 42% | Draw 34% | Bahia 24%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 49% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sport Recife 29%, Bahia 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sport Recife's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bahia's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sport Recife 0.94 PPG, Bahia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sport Recife win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.