Coritiba 1-0 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira plays host to Coritiba versus Avai in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Coritiba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Avai have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Coritiba, 0.60 for Avai — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Coritiba 0W, Avai 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Avai winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Coritiba — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Avai — key trading statistics (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 52% versus Avai 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 52% | Avai 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.47 xG and Avai 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.838 / defence 1.186 | Avai attack 0.721 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.912. Avai bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Coritiba games / 23 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 54% | Draw 27% | Avai 20%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Avai 5.00. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 40% | Avai 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 54% | Draw 27% | Avai 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Coritiba 1.47 / Avai 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.838 / def 1.186 | Avai attack 0.721 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Avai xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Avai kick off?
Coritiba vs Avai kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Avai?
Coritiba 1 - 0 Avai.
Where is Coritiba vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Avai part of?
Coritiba vs Avai is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 54% chance of winning, Avai a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Coritiba and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Avai?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Avai 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Avai in?
Coritiba (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Avai (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.84) and Avai's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Avai's attack (0.72x) against Coritiba's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.77
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.25
0.78
Avai xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.78 for Avai, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Avai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coritiba's recent record stands at 6W 4D 13L from 23 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Avai, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 12L across 23 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for Coritiba against 1.00 for Avai. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 5W 2D 4L from 11 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Avai's away record stands at 1W 2D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Avai's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Coritiba are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Avai are on 1.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Avai
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Avai in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Avai have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Avai away?
Coritiba's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.55 PPG; Avai away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
1
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Avai have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2022, when Coritiba 1-0 Avai.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 46%, Avai 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Coritiba) and 54% (Avai).
On the defensive side: Coritiba have failed to score in 27% of games; Avai in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Avai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Coritiba's recent matches and 46% of Avai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coritiba vs Avai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Coritiba's recent games and 54% of Avai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Avai tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Avai in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out Avai 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Avai 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.47 xG and Avai 0.78 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.84 / defence 1.19 against Avai attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 54% | Draw 27% | Avai 20%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 52%, Avai 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Avai's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coritiba 0.96 PPG, Avai 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coritiba win broke the near-deadlock. Coritiba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Avai (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.