Corinthians 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host RB Bragantino at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 30 August 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Corinthians — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Corinthians have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Corinthians at 1.40 PPG versus RB Bragantino's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 1, RB Bragantino 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Corinthians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 46% versus RB Bragantino 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 34% | RB Bragantino 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.53 xG and RB Bragantino 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.933 / defence 0.741 | RB Bragantino attack 1.169 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 0.887. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Corinthians games / 61 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 55% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 19%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 30% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Aug 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 55% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Corinthians 1.53 / RB Bragantino 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.933 / def 0.741 | RB Bragantino attack 1.169 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.307 / away 0.887 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.77
RB Bragantino xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:30 on Tuesday 30 August 2022 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Corinthians 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino part of?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 55% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Corinthians and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
Record (2 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.93) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.87
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.29
0.77
RB Bragantino xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
4%
24.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.77 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 18D 17L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (22W 21D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.57 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Corinthians's home form reads 17W 8D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (9W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 26W 18D 17L in their last 61 games (1.57 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 22W 21D 18L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or RB Bragantino away?
Corinthians's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.97 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Corinthians or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
5
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, RB Bragantino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Corinthians 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 50%, RB Bragantino 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Corinthians) and 57% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Corinthians's recent matches and 57% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Corinthians's recent games and 57% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.53 xG and RB Bragantino 0.77 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.93 / defence 0.74 against RB Bragantino attack 1.17 / defence 1.25, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 55% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 19%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 34%, RB Bragantino 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.57 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.