America Mineiro 2-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates America Mineiro at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
America Mineiro and Coritiba meet at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 September 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Current Form
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, America Mineiro have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Coritiba have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward America Mineiro. A 0.70 PPG lead over Coritiba (1.70 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — America Mineiro lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–1 with Coritiba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
America Mineiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Coritiba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 33% versus Coritiba 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 29% | Coritiba 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.81 xG and Coritiba 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.890 / defence 1.033 | Coritiba attack 0.919 / defence 1.556. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.882. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.556 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 America Mineiro games / 24 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 60% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 17%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Coritiba 5.88. The model has a clear lean to America Mineiro (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is America Mineiro at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: America Mineiro 40% | Coritiba 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 60% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG America Mineiro 1.81 / Coritiba 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.890 / def 1.033 | Coritiba attack 0.919 / def 1.556 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.882 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Coritiba xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Coritiba kick off?
America Mineiro vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
America Mineiro 2 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is America Mineiro vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Coritiba part of?
America Mineiro vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 60% chance of winning, Coritiba a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both America Mineiro and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Coritiba?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 0 | Coritiba 1W.
What form are America Mineiro and Coritiba in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.89) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.92x) against America Mineiro's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.41
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.64
0.84
Coritiba xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
35.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.84 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
America Mineiro's recent record stands at 9W 5D 10L from 24 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 13L across 24 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for America Mineiro against 1.04 for Coritiba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, America Mineiro have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Coritiba's away record stands at 0W 2D 9L across 11 trips, a 0.18 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
America Mineiro are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.08 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Coritiba in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 9W 5D 10L in their last 24 games (1.33 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 7W 4D 13L in their last 24 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Coritiba away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.64 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Coritiba have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 0-3 on 8 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, America Mineiro have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
0
Draws
3
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Coritiba?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Coritiba have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Coritiba?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 36%, Coritiba 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (America Mineiro) and 64% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 36% of games; Coritiba in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 64% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of America Mineiro's recent games and 64% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Coritiba tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
America Mineiro cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Coritiba 2-0 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.81 xG and Coritiba 0.84 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Coritiba attack 0.92 / defence 1.56, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 60% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 17%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 29%, Coritiba 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Coritiba's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — America Mineiro 1.33 PPG, Coritiba 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the America Mineiro win broke the near-deadlock. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.