Avai 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 39%, yet in-form Internacional provide a compelling counter-argument — this Avai vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva plays host to Avai versus Internacional in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 August 2022 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Avai have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Avai at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Internacional (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Internacional have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Internacional are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Avai have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Internacional in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Avai 0W, Internacional 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Avai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 64% versus Internacional 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 59% | Internacional 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.30 xG and Internacional 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 1.013 / defence 1.352 | Internacional attack 0.961 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 0.914. Data: 22 Avai games / 60 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 39% | Draw 27% | Internacional 34%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Internacional 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avai at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Internacional (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Avai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Avai 90% | Internacional 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Aug 2022, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 39% | Draw 27% | Internacional 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Avai 1.30 / Internacional 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 1.013 / def 1.352 | Internacional attack 0.961 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.336 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Avai (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Internacional xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Internacional kick off?
Avai vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 23 August 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Internacional?
Avai 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Avai vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Internacional part of?
Avai vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 39% chance of winning, Internacional a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Avai and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Avai 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Avai and Internacional in?
Avai (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Internacional (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Avai's attack rating (1.01) and Internacional's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.96x) against Avai's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.70
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Avai xG
Total xG
2.48
1.19
Internacional xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Avai and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Avai and 1.19 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Avai have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 5D 11L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional's form line: 9W 9D 4L from 22 games, 1.64 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Internacional are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Avai.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Avai have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Avai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Internacional have gone 3W 5D 3L from 11 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Avai are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.50 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Internacional in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Internacional in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 6W 5D 11L in their last 22 games (1.05 PPG), while Internacional have gone 9W 9D 4L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Internacional away?
Avai's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.64 PPG; Internacional away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Avai or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avai have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Internacional in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
1
Draws
1
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Internacional?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Internacional have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2022, when Avai 0-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Avai, 54% for Internacional — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Avai) and 27% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Internacional in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Internacional?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Avai's games and 54% of Internacional's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avai vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Avai's recent games and 27% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avai and Internacional tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Internacional in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Internacional defy the odds to beat Avai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Avai 0-1 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.30 xG and Internacional 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Avai fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Internacional attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 39% | Draw 27% | Internacional 34%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Internacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 59%, Internacional 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Internacional's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Internacional arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Avai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.