Fluminense 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Palmeiras travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Fluminense. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fluminense 2.30 PPG, Palmeiras 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fluminense, 0 for Palmeiras and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Fluminense trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 43% versus Palmeiras 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 39% | Palmeiras 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.14 xG and Palmeiras 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.367 / defence 1.122 | Palmeiras attack 1.264 / defence 0.627. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.907. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.367 — their λ of 1.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.627 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 61 Fluminense games / 61 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 33% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 40%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Palmeiras 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 60% | Palmeiras 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 33% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Fluminense 1.14 / Palmeiras 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.367 / def 1.122 | Palmeiras attack 1.264 / def 0.627 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Fluminense 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Fluminense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Palmeiras part of?
Fluminense vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 33% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Fluminense and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in?
Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.37x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.63x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.65
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.42
1.29
Palmeiras xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
13%
7.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.29 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 27W 14D 20L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras's form line: 34W 13D 14L from 61 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.56 PPG, Palmeiras on 1.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 16W 7D 7L from 30 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fluminense are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.57 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 27W 14D 20L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 34W 13D 14L in their last 61 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Palmeiras away?
Fluminense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.00 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fluminense and Palmeiras runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fluminense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Palmeiras have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2026, when Palmeiras 2-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Palmeiras?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, Palmeiras 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fluminense) and 47% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 50%; Palmeiras in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 40% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fluminense's recent games and 47% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense and Palmeiras finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.14 xG and Palmeiras 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.37 / defence 1.12 against Palmeiras attack 1.26 / defence 0.63, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 33% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 40%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 39%, Palmeiras 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Palmeiras's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.56 PPG, Palmeiras 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.