America Mineiro 3-0 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates America Mineiro at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Chapecoense-sc travel to Estádio Raimundo Sampaio to take on America Mineiro. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 December 2021, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, America Mineiro stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
America Mineiro's home record at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Chapecoense-sc have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
America Mineiro are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for America Mineiro, 0 for Chapecoense-sc and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
America Mineiro in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — America Mineiro 47% versus Chapecoense-sc 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (America Mineiro 24% | Chapecoense-sc 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.35 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 0.921 / defence 0.958 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.705 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 0.982 / away 0.911. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing America Mineiro's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 America Mineiro games / 34 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 54% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 17%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Chapecoense-sc 5.88. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Chapecoense-sc's lower xG of 0.61 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, America Mineiro are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates corroborate: America Mineiro 40% | Chapecoense-sc 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 54% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 34% | xG America Mineiro 1.35 / Chapecoense-sc 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 0.921 / def 0.958 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.705 / def 1.491 | league avg home 0.982 / away 0.911 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Chapecoense-sc xG
34%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
America Mineiro 3 - 0 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 54% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (1 meetings): America Mineiro 0W | Draws 1 | Chapecoense-sc 0W.
What form are America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (0.92) and Chapecoense-sc's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chapecoense-sc's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
54%
1.84
29%
3.47
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
1.96
0.61
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.92
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
4%
22.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.61 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
America Mineiro come into this having played 34 games, going 11W 13D 10L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Chapecoense-sc sit at 0.44 PPG from 34 outings (1W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
America Mineiro carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
America Mineiro's home form reads 7W 6D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Chapecoense-sc have taken 0.53 points per game from 17 outings (1W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, America Mineiro come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
America Mineiro are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.79 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Current Season
Chapecoense-sc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
America Mineiro have gone 11W 13D 10L in their last 34 games (1.35 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 12D 21L in their last 34 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — America Mineiro at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
America Mineiro's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — America Mineiro at home: 1.59 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
America Mineiro
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc?
From 2 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2021, when America Mineiro 3-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc?
America Mineiro have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
America Mineiro see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — America Mineiro 35%, Chapecoense-sc 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for America Mineiro and 47% for Chapecoense-sc.
On the defensive side: America Mineiro keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; America Mineiro have failed to score in 41% of games; Chapecoense-sc in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when America Mineiro play Chapecoense-sc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of America Mineiro's recent matches and 59% of Chapecoense-sc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is America Mineiro vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of America Mineiro's recent games and 47% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do America Mineiro and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
America Mineiro have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant America Mineiro run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
America Mineiro beat Chapecoense-sc 3-0 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.35 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.61 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. America Mineiro beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 0.92 / defence 0.96 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.70 / defence 1.49, drawn from 35/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 54% | Draw 29% | Chapecoense-sc 17%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (America Mineiro 24%, Chapecoense-sc 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
America Mineiro's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, America Mineiro arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.44. That form edge translated into the three points. America Mineiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.