Cuiaba 0-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico-MG at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Atletico-MG at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 July 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — All Games: 0W 4D 2L from 6 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cuiaba have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico-MG have recorded 4W 1D 3L from 8 outings — 1.62 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Atletico-MG are 0.95 PPG ahead (1.62 vs 0.67), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Atletico-MG in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 33% versus Atletico-MG 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 33% | Atletico-MG 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.98 xG and Atletico-MG 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.903 / defence 1.399 | Atletico-MG attack 0.737 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 0.931 / away 1.083. Data: 6 Cuiaba games / 8 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 31% | Draw 31% | Atletico-MG 38%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico-MG 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 33% | Atletico-MG 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 31% | Draw 31% | Atletico-MG 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Cuiaba 0.98 / Atletico-MG 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.903 / def 1.399 | Atletico-MG attack 0.737 / def 1.172 | league avg home 0.931 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Atletico-MG xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG part of?
Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 31% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cuiaba and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico-MG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico-MG in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 0W-4D-2L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.17 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 4W-1D-3L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Atletico-MG's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
31%
3.24
31%
3.18
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.10
1.12
Atletico-MG xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.12 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 0W 4D 2L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cuiaba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Atletico-MG's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Atletico-MG, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Atletico-MG are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cuiaba.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Early Season
Atletico-MG
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 0W 4D 2L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Have Cuiaba or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Atletico-MG runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Atletico-MG won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
2
Draws
6
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico-MG?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 33%, Atletico-MG 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cuiaba and 33% for Atletico-MG.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 33%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Atletico-MG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 50% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cuiaba's recent games and 33% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Atletico-MG tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atletico-MG in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico-MG edge out Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.98 xG and Atletico-MG 1.12 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.90 / defence 1.40 against Atletico-MG attack 0.74 / defence 1.17, drawn from 6/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 31% | Draw 31% | Atletico-MG 38%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 33%, Atletico-MG 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico-MG conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.