Chapecoense-sc 0-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc host Corinthians at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chapecoense-sc stand at 0W 4D 5L from 9 Serie A matches — 0.44 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.89 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc at Arena Condá this season: 0W 1D 3L from 4 home games — 0.25 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have recorded 2W 5D 2L from 9 outings — 1.22 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Corinthians have posted 1W 3D 0L from 4 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Corinthians — 0.78 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.22 vs 0.44). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Corinthians in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chapecoense-sc 67% and Corinthians 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chapecoense-sc 56% | Corinthians 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.52 xG and Corinthians 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.616 / defence 1.348 | Corinthians attack 0.759 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 0.918 / away 1.041. Chapecoense-sc's attack strength of 0.616 is below the league average — the 0.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Chapecoense-sc games / 9 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 17% | Draw 35% | Corinthians 48%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 5.88 | Draw 2.86 | Corinthians 2.08. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Chapecoense-sc's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chapecoense-sc 25% | Corinthians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Friday 9 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 17% | Draw 35% | Corinthians 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 27% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.52 / Corinthians 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.616 / def 1.348 | Corinthians attack 0.759 / def 0.924 | league avg home 0.918 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.52
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Corinthians xG
27%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:00 on Friday 9 July 2021 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 17% chance of winning, Corinthians a 48% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-4D-5L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.89 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Corinthians (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chapecoense-sc's attack rating (0.62) and Corinthians's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 22.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.3%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
17%
5.82
35%
2.86
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
21.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.52
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
1.59
1.06
Corinthians xG
5.82
17%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.65
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
59%
1.69
Win to Nil
6%
16.87
28%
3.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 21.8 | 11.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 0.52 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.06 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chapecoense-sc's recent record stands at 0W 4D 5L from 9 games, a 0.44 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 2L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Corinthians by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chapecoense-sc heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chapecoense-sc have managed 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — 0.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 1W 3D 0L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 0.78 scored and 0.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 5L in their last 9 games (0.44 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 2W 5D 2L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Corinthians away?
Corinthians's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.25 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Corinthians in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chapecoense-sc's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
1
Draws
2
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Corinthians have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 25%, Corinthians 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Chapecoense-sc and 0% for Corinthians.
On the defensive side: Corinthians in 50%; Chapecoense-sc have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Chapecoense-sc's recent matches and 50% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chapecoense-sc's recent games and 0% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Corinthians tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Chapecoense-sc 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Chapecoense-sc 0-1 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 0.52 xG and Corinthians 1.06 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.62 / defence 1.35 against Corinthians attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 17% | Draw 35% | Corinthians 48%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chapecoense-sc 56%, Corinthians 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.44. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.