Flamengo 2-0 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Sport Recife encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Flamengo and Sport Recife meet at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Flamengo's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's home record at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira: 5W 0D 3L from 8 Serie A appearances (1.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Sport Recife (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife's away record: 2W 3D 3L from 8 road trips in Serie A this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Flamengo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Sport Recife's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sport Recife half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Flamengo 46% | Sport Recife 23%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Flamengo 62% | Sport Recife 15%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.19 xG and Sport Recife 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.291 / defence 1.389 | Sport Recife attack 0.726 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 0.869 / away 1.082. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Flamengo games / 15 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 38% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 33%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Sport Recife 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 50% | Sport Recife 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 38% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Flamengo 1.19 / Sport Recife 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.291 / def 1.389 | Sport Recife attack 0.726 / def 1.057 | league avg home 0.869 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sport Recife xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Sport Recife kick off?
Flamengo vs Sport Recife kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Sport Recife?
Flamengo 2 - 0 Sport Recife.
Where is Flamengo vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira.
What competition is Flamengo vs Sport Recife part of?
Flamengo vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 38% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Flamengo and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Sport Recife in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.29) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.73x) against Flamengo's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 13/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.51
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.28
1.09
Sport Recife xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
10%
9.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.09 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Flamengo have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 8W 0D 5L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sport Recife's form line: 3W 5D 5L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sport Recife.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Flamengo have posted 1.71 PPG from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
On the road, Sport Recife have gone 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.46 scored and 0.62 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Sport Recife's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sport Recife in 23%.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 8W 0D 5L in their last 13 games (1.85 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Sport Recife away?
Flamengo's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.71 PPG; Sport Recife away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Flamengo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-5 on 15 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Flamengo
1
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Sport Recife have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 15 November 2025, when Sport Recife 1-5 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Sport Recife?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sport Recife tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 57%, Sport Recife 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Flamengo) and 14% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Sport Recife in 43%; Flamengo have failed to score in 29% of games; Sport Recife in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Flamengo's recent matches and 29% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Flamengo's recent games and 14% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 14% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Sport Recife.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Sport Recife 2-0 at Estádio Municipal General Raulino de Oliveira, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.19 xG and Sport Recife 1.09 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sport Recife landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.29 / defence 1.39 against Sport Recife attack 0.73 / defence 1.06, drawn from 13/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 38% | Draw 28% | Sport Recife 33%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 62%, Sport Recife 15%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sport Recife's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Sport Recife (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.