Bahia 1-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 63% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bahia face Vitoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Vitoria in Serie A (matchday 5). Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
Form
Bahia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Bahia have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vitoria have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vitoria's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Bahia, 1.70 for Vitoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bahia edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2025, ended Bahia 1–2 Vitoria — a Vitoria win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Vitoria half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Vitoria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Vitoria 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 2.08 xG and Vitoria 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.013 / defence 0.903 | Vitoria attack 0.944 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.143. Vitoria's defence rating of 1.333 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bahia's projected output up. Data: built from Bahia's last 41 games and Vitoria's last 41.
Result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 20% | Vitoria 17%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.59 | Draw 4.92 | Vitoria 5.97. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bahia's last 10 home games and Vitoria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bahia 30% (last 10 home games) | Vitoria 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 5 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 March 2026 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 63% | Draw 20% | Vitoria 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Bahia 2.08 / Vitoria 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.013 / def 0.903 | Vitoria attack 0.944 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Bahia (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Vitoria xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Vitoria kick off?
Bahia vs Vitoria kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Wednesday 11 March 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Vitoria?
Bahia 1 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Bahia vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Vitoria part of?
Bahia vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 5) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 63% chance of winning, Vitoria a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Bahia and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bahia vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.01x the league average against Vitoria's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (0.94x) against Bahia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 41 games and Vitoria's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
63%
1.59
20%
4.92
17%
5.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Bahia xG
Total xG
3.06
0.97
Vitoria xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
5.97
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
12%
8.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
2%
47.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Bahia and 0.97 for Vitoria, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bahia come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 17D 27L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Vitoria sit at 1.21 PPG from 76 outings (24W 20D 32L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Bahia against 1.21 for Vitoria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bahia's home form reads 25W 6D 7L across their last 38 home games, a 2.13 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vitoria have taken 0.84 points per game from their last 38 away games (7W 11D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
Bahia (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
❓ Bahia vs Vitoria Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Vitoria away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Bahia or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vitoria in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vitoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 3, Vitoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Vitoria 0-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Vitoria?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Vitoria 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 47% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Vitoria in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs Vitoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and Vitoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 53% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bahia and Vitoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 47% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Vitoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bahia's recent matches and 66% of Vitoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Vitoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 5, as Bahia and Vitoria drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.08 xG and Vitoria 0.97 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against Vitoria attack 0.94 / defence 1.33, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 63% | Draw 20% | Vitoria 17%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitoria's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, Vitoria 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.