Flamengo 2-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Fortaleza EC travel to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to take on Flamengo. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 June 2021, 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.06 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.225 / defence 1.126 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.859 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 0.841 / away 0.985. Data: 3 Flamengo games / 5 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 37% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 32%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Fortaleza EC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 37% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Flamengo 1.06 / Fortaleza EC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.225 / def 1.126 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.859 / def 1.027 | league avg home 0.841 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Fortaleza EC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 23 June 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Flamengo 2 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 37% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Flamengo and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.23x the league average against Fortaleza EC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Flamengo's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
37%
2.68
31%
3.26
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.01
0.95
Fortaleza EC xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
11%
9.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.95 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Flamengo won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Flamengo's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
1
Draws
4
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Fortaleza EC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Fortaleza EC?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Fortaleza EC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Fortaleza EC 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.06 xG and Fortaleza EC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Flamengo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.23 / defence 1.13 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.86 / defence 1.03, drawn from 3/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 37% | Draw 31% | Fortaleza EC 32%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.