Corinthians 2-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Química Arena plays host to Corinthians versus Sport Recife in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 24 June 2021 at 23:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 0.92 xG and Sport Recife 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.817 / defence 1.206 | Sport Recife attack 0.692 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 0.995. Sport Recife bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Corinthians games / 5 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 36% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 31%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Sport Recife 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sport Recife's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 24 Jun 2021, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 36% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Corinthians 0.92 / Sport Recife 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.817 / def 1.206 | Sport Recife attack 0.692 / def 1.243 | league avg home 0.901 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sport Recife xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Sport Recife kick off?
Corinthians vs Sport Recife kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 24 June 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Corinthians 2 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Corinthians vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Sport Recife part of?
Corinthians vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 36% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Corinthians and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Corinthians and Sport Recife in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sport Recife's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sport Recife's attack (0.69x) against Corinthians's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
36%
2.81
33%
2.99
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Corinthians xG
Total xG
1.75
0.83
Sport Recife xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.45
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.5 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.83 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Corinthians
0
Draws
2
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Sport Recife have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Sport Recife 1-0 Corinthians.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Sport Recife 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.92 xG and Sport Recife 0.83 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.82 / defence 1.21 against Sport Recife attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 36% | Draw 33% | Sport Recife 31%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.