Gremio 1-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Gremio welcome America Mineiro to Arena do Grêmio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gremio have posted 0W 3D 2L at Arena do Grêmio — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, America Mineiro have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for America Mineiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
America Mineiro's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 4L across 5 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Gremio) versus 0.90 (America Mineiro). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Gremio in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 70% of games.
America Mineiro in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Gremio 20% | America Mineiro 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 20% | America Mineiro 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.90 xG and America Mineiro 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.617 / defence 1.007 | America Mineiro attack 0.831 / defence 1.622. League average goals — home 0.896 / away 1.128. Gremio's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.622 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Gremio games / 12 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 32% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 35%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | America Mineiro 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates America Mineiro as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 20% | America Mineiro 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 32% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Gremio 0.90 / America Mineiro 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.617 / def 1.007 | America Mineiro attack 0.831 / def 1.622 | league avg home 0.896 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.94
America Mineiro xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs America Mineiro kick off?
Gremio vs America Mineiro kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs America Mineiro?
Gremio 1 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Gremio vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs America Mineiro part of?
Gremio vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 32% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Gremio and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and America Mineiro in?
Gremio (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. America Mineiro (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gremio's attack at 0.62x the league average against America Mineiro's defence at 1.62x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
32%
3.08
32%
3.08
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.84
0.94
America Mineiro xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
14%
6.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.0 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Gremio and 0.94 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio's recent record stands at 1W 3D 6L from 10 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
America Mineiro, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 5L across 10 games — 0.90 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for America Mineiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gremio on 0.60 PPG, America Mineiro on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
America Mineiro's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 0.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
America Mineiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 games (0.60 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or America Mineiro away?
Gremio's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 0.75 PPG; America Mineiro away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Gremio or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gremio have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Gremio's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gremio
1
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, America Mineiro have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when America Mineiro 3-4 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and America Mineiro?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 25%, America Mineiro 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Gremio) and 75% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 75% of games; America Mineiro in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Gremio's recent matches and 50% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Gremio's recent games and 75% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio and America Mineiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 13, as Gremio and America Mineiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.90 xG and America Mineiro 0.94 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.62 / defence 1.01 against America Mineiro attack 0.83 / defence 1.62, drawn from 10/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 32% | Draw 32% | America Mineiro 35%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 20%, America Mineiro 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 0.60 PPG, America Mineiro 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. America Mineiro (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.