Ceara 1-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ceara host Atletico Paranaense at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 July 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ceara — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ceara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ceara at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo this season: 3W 1D 1L from 5 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Ceara are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atletico Paranaense — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ceara register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Atletico Paranaense in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ceara in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ceara 60% and Atletico Paranaense 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 40% | Atletico Paranaense 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.38 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 1.242 / defence 1.257 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.287 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.049. Atletico Paranaense have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.70 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Ceara games / 10 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 31% | Draw 24% | Atletico Paranaense 45%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Atletico Paranaense 2.22. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ceara 80% | Atletico Paranaense 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jul 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 31% | Draw 24% | Atletico Paranaense 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Ceara 1.38 / Atletico Paranaense 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 1.242 / def 1.257 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.287 / def 1.200 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Atletico Paranaense xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 17 July 2021 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Ceara 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 31% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Ceara and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ceara and Atletico Paranaense in?
Ceara (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ceara's attack rating (1.24) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
31%
3.23
24%
4.15
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ceara xG
Total xG
3.07
1.70
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
6%
17.65
11%
8.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ceara and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ceara and 1.70 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 2W 6D 2L record — D-D-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ceara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Atletico Paranaense are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ceara.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ceara have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's season.
The Goals Picture
Ceara are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.90 scored and 1.10 conceded. Atletico Paranaense's attacking output running into Ceara's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ceara have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Atletico Paranaense in 70%.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Ceara's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.75 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Ceara or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ceara's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ceara
1
Draws
2
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense?
From 4 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Ceara 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ceara at 75%, Atletico Paranaense at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Ceara and 75% for Atletico Paranaense. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Atletico Paranaense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ceara's games and 75% of Atletico Paranaense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ceara's matches and 75% of Atletico Paranaense's.
Do Ceara and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ceara defy the odds to beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara beat Atletico Paranaense 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.38 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.70 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 1.24 / defence 1.26 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.29 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 31% | Draw 24% | Atletico Paranaense 45%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 40%, Atletico Paranaense 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Ceara winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.