Bahia 0-5 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bahia host Flamengo at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 July 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 2L across 6 games at Arena Fonte Nova this term (1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova.
Flamengo — All Games: 5W 0D 4L from 9 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.67 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bahia 1.40 PPG, Flamengo 1.67 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 44% versus Flamengo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 44% | Flamengo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.13 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.102 / defence 1.167 | Flamengo attack 0.805 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 0.905 / away 1.087. Data: 11 Bahia games / 9 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 38% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 33%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 33% | Flamengo 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 38% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Bahia 1.13 / Flamengo 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.102 / def 1.167 | Flamengo attack 0.805 / def 1.131 | league avg home 0.905 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Bahia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Flamengo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Flamengo kick off?
Bahia vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Bahia 0 - 5 Flamengo.
Where is Bahia vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Flamengo part of?
Bahia vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 38% chance of winning, Flamengo a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bahia and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-0D-4L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.10) and Flamengo's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.39
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.15
1.02
Flamengo xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
11%
9.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Bahia and 1.02 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 4W 1D 4L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 5W 0D 4L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.44 PPG, Flamengo on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Flamengo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 5W 0D 4L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Flamengo away?
Bahia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.00 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bahia or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Flamengo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Flamengo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jul 2021, when Flamengo won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Bahia
0
Draws
8
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Flamengo have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 67%, Flamengo 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bahia) and 33% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Flamengo in 33%; Flamengo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Bahia's recent matches and 33% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Bahia's recent games and 33% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Flamengo tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Bahia 0-5 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.13 xG and Flamengo 1.02 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Bahia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 1.02 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.10 / defence 1.17 against Flamengo attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 38% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 33%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 44%, Flamengo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Flamengo's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.44 PPG, Flamengo 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.