America Mineiro 1-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates America Mineiro at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this America Mineiro vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
America Mineiro host Botafogo at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
America Mineiro — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
America Mineiro's home record at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — America Mineiro are significantly better at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects America Mineiro 1.45 xG and Botafogo 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: America Mineiro attack 1.161 / defence 0.860 | Botafogo attack 1.136 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 0.907. Data: 44 America Mineiro games / 6 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: America Mineiro 50% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 23%. Fair-value odds: America Mineiro 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Botafogo 4.35. America Mineiro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is America Mineiro at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on America Mineiro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: America Mineiro vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: America Mineiro 50% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG America Mineiro 1.45 / Botafogo 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: America Mineiro attack 1.161 / def 0.860 | Botafogo attack 1.136 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.346 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: America Mineiro (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
America Mineiro xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Botafogo xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does America Mineiro vs Botafogo kick off?
America Mineiro vs Botafogo kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What was the final score in America Mineiro vs Botafogo?
America Mineiro 1 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is America Mineiro vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio.
What competition is America Mineiro vs Botafogo part of?
America Mineiro vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win America Mineiro vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives America Mineiro a 50% chance of winning, Botafogo a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making America Mineiro the favourite.
Will both teams score in America Mineiro vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both America Mineiro and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will America Mineiro vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Botafogo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are America Mineiro and Botafogo in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. America Mineiro home split: 2.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.40 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from America Mineiro's attack rating (1.16) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus America Mineiro's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
America Mineiro Win
50%
1.99
27%
3.74
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
America Mineiro xG
Total xG
2.34
0.89
Botafogo xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
5%
18.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for America Mineiro vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are America Mineiro and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for America Mineiro and 0.89 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for America Mineiro vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
America Mineiro's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
America Mineiro
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between America Mineiro and Botafogo?
From 4 meetings on record, America Mineiro have won 0, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did America Mineiro and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2023, when America Mineiro 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between America Mineiro and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = America Mineiro home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
America Mineiro and Botafogo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio, Regular Season - 7, as America Mineiro and Botafogo drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting America Mineiro 1.45 xG and Botafogo 0.89 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of America Mineiro attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it America Mineiro 50% | Draw 27% | Botafogo 23%, with America Mineiro to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.