Atletico Paranaense 2-1 Avai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Avai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense host Avai at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Atletico Paranaense at Arena da Baixada this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.23 xG and Avai 0.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.835 / defence 0.804 | Avai attack 0.668 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 0.913. Data: 44 Atletico Paranaense games / 6 Avai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 55% | Draw 30% | Avai 15%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Avai 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Paranaense (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Avai's lower xG of 0.49 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Avai | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 55% | Draw 30% | Avai 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 27% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.23 / Avai 0.49 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.835 / def 0.804 | Avai attack 0.668 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.322 / away 0.913 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.49
Avai xG
27%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Avai kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Avai kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Avai?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1 Avai.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Avai being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Avai part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Avai is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Avai?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 55% chance of winning, Avai a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Avai?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Avai will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Avai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Avai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Avai in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Atletico Paranaense home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.83) and Avai's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Avai's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 0.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (19.3%), 2-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
55%
1.82
30%
3.29
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
1.72
0.49
Avai xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.64
73%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
61%
1.63
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
34%
2.98
4%
23.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.0 | 10.8 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Avai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Avai expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.49 for Avai, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Avai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Avai
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
0
Avai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Avai?
From 2 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, Avai have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Avai last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Avai 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Avai?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Avai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Avai 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Avai 2-1 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.23 xG and Avai 0.49 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.83 / defence 0.80 against Avai attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 55% | Draw 30% | Avai 15%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.