Coritiba 1-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coritiba at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira plays host to Coritiba versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 21:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
America Mineiro (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
America Mineiro away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.66 xG and America Mineiro 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.232 / defence 1.159 | America Mineiro attack 0.944 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 0.932. Data: 5 Coritiba games / 43 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 52% | Draw 24% | America Mineiro 23%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | America Mineiro 4.35. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coritiba as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coritiba if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 52% | Draw 24% | America Mineiro 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Coritiba 1.66 / America Mineiro 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 1.232 / def 1.159 | America Mineiro attack 0.944 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.374 / away 0.932 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.02
America Mineiro xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs America Mineiro kick off?
Coritiba vs America Mineiro kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Coritiba 1 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Coritiba vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs America Mineiro part of?
Coritiba vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 52% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coritiba and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and America Mineiro?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and America Mineiro in?
America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. America Mineiro away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (1.23) and America Mineiro's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (0.94x) against Coritiba's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.10
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.68
1.02
America Mineiro xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
4%
22.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Coritiba and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.02 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs America Mineiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
America Mineiro
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Coritiba go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coritiba won 0-3 on 8 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Coritiba
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 3, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2023, when America Mineiro 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and America Mineiro?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Coritiba edge out America Mineiro 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat America Mineiro 1-0 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.66 xG and America Mineiro 1.02 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. America Mineiro landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against America Mineiro attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 52% | Draw 24% | America Mineiro 23%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.