Botafogo 3-1 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Botafogo and Fortaleza EC meet at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 May 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortaleza EC (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.09 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.788 / defence 1.337 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.893 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 0.918. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Botafogo games / 42 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 35% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 36%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Fortaleza EC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 35% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Botafogo 1.09 / Fortaleza EC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.788 / def 1.337 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.893 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.366 / away 0.918 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Fortaleza EC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC?
Botafogo 3 - 1 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 35% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Botafogo and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fortaleza EC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Fortaleza EC in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fortaleza EC away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (0.79) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortaleza EC's attack (0.89x) against Botafogo's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 5/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.42
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.18
1.10
Fortaleza EC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.10 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Fortaleza EC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Botafogo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 0-5 on 10 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortaleza EC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Botafogo
2
Draws
0
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Fortaleza EC?
From 8 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 6, Fortaleza EC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Botafogo 4-2 Fortaleza EC.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Fortaleza EC?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Fortaleza EC 3-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.09 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.79 / defence 1.34 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 5/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 35% | Draw 29% | Fortaleza EC 36%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.