Cuiaba 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Internacional make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 May 2022 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Internacional have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Internacional have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Cuiaba. A 0.50 PPG lead over Internacional (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cuiaba have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Internacional in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cuiaba 1W, Internacional 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Internacional — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 42% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 34% | Internacional 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.94 xG and Internacional 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.784 / defence 1.033 | Internacional attack 0.871 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 0.907. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Cuiaba games / 44 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 37% | Draw 33% | Internacional 30%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Internacional 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Internacional's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cuiaba are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Internacional 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 37% | Draw 33% | Internacional 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Cuiaba 0.94 / Internacional 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.784 / def 1.033 | Internacional attack 0.871 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.346 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Internacional xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Internacional kick off?
Cuiaba vs Internacional kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Cuiaba 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Cuiaba vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Internacional part of?
Cuiaba vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 37% chance of winning, Internacional a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Cuiaba and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 1 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.78x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.87x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
37%
2.72
33%
3.00
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.75
0.81
Internacional xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.81 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 17D 11L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 12W 12D 14L from 38 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.26 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Internacional have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Internacional away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.42 PPG; Internacional away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Internacional in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Internacional have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2024, when Internacional 3-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 42%, Internacional 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Cuiaba and 32% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 32% of games; Internacional in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 37% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cuiaba's recent games and 32% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Internacional tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Internacional in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cuiaba and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba and Internacional finished level at 1-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.94 xG and Internacional 0.81 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Internacional attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 37% | Draw 33% | Internacional 30%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 34%, Internacional 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Internacional 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.