Botafogo 0-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Cruzeiro travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023, 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cruzeiro's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cruzeiro — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 0, Cruzeiro 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 47% versus Cruzeiro 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 42% | Cruzeiro 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.13 xG and Cruzeiro 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.192 / defence 1.169 | Cruzeiro attack 0.763 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.157. Cruzeiro's defence strength of 0.733 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 74 Botafogo games / 36 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 33%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Cruzeiro 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cruzeiro (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 80% | Cruzeiro 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Botafogo 1.13 / Cruzeiro 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.192 / def 1.169 | Cruzeiro attack 0.763 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cruzeiro xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Botafogo vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Botafogo 0 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Botafogo vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Cruzeiro part of?
Botafogo vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 38% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Botafogo and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 1 | Cruzeiro 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Cruzeiro in?
Botafogo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Cruzeiro (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (1.19) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
38%
2.65
29%
3.40
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.16
1.03
Cruzeiro xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.03 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo come into this having played 36 games, going 18W 9D 9L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (11W 12D 13L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Botafogo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Botafogo's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.44 points per game from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.94 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 28%.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Cruzeiro in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 18W 9D 9L in their last 36 games (1.75 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Cruzeiro away?
Botafogo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.00 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Botafogo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jan 2026, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Botafogo
3
Draws
3
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cruzeiro?
From 8 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 50%, Cruzeiro 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Botafogo) and 39% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 50%; Cruzeiro in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Botafogo's recent matches and 22% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Botafogo's recent games and 39% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Botafogo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo and Cruzeiro finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.13 xG and Cruzeiro 1.03 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.19 / defence 1.17 against Cruzeiro attack 0.76 / defence 0.73, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 38% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 33%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 42%, Cruzeiro 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.