Bahia 4-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Atletico-MG (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bahia face Atletico-MG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Fonte Nova plays host to Bahia versus Atletico-MG in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bahia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Atletico-MG (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico-MG are 1.30 PPG clear of Bahia over their recent games (2.30 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Atletico-MG, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 13 Aug 2023, ended Bahia 0–1 Atletico-MG — a Atletico-MG win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Atletico-MG have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Atletico-MG half-time and goal-timing data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 46% versus Atletico-MG 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 49% | Atletico-MG 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 0.72 xG and Atletico-MG 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.857 / defence 1.067 | Atletico-MG attack 1.184 / defence 0.658. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.118. Atletico-MG bring a tight defence (rating 0.658, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bahia's projected output down. Data: built from Bahia's last 37 games and Atletico-MG's last 75.
Result probabilities: Bahia 19% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 53%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 5.21 | Draw 3.66 | Atletico-MG 1.87. Atletico-MG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico-MG are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bahia's last 10 home games and Atletico-MG's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bahia 40% (last 10 home games) | Atletico-MG 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 38 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Thursday 7 December 2023 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 19% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Bahia 0.72 / Atletico-MG 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.857 / def 1.067 | Atletico-MG attack 1.184 / def 0.658 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Atletico-MG xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Bahia vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 7 December 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Bahia 4 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Bahia vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Atletico-MG part of?
Bahia vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 38) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 19% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bahia and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Bahia vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bahia's attack rating (0.86) and Atletico-MG's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (1.18x) against Bahia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 37 games and Atletico-MG's last 75 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
19%
5.21
27%
3.66
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.14
1.41
Atletico-MG xG
5.21
19%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
5%
21.40
26%
3.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 16.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Bahia and 1.41 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 8D 18L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Atletico-MG's form line: 19W 9D 9L from 37 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Atletico-MG are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 18 home games (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Atletico-MG have gone 8W 6D 4L from their last 18 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bahia are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.38 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico-MG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
Bahia (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Current Season
Atletico-MG
Current Season
❓ Bahia vs Atletico-MG Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 11W 8D 18L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Atletico-MG away?
Atletico-MG's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.44 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bahia or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Bahia and Atletico-MG, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 21 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won Atletico-MG 3-0 Bahia on 25 Jul 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Atletico-MG?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 3, Atletico-MG have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 July 2026: Atletico-MG 1-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Atletico-MG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 56%, Atletico-MG 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Bahia) and 28% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atletico-MG in 44%; Atletico-MG in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs Atletico-MG Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and Atletico-MG matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bahia's recent matches and 39% of Atletico-MG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bahia and Atletico-MG matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Bahia's recent games and 28% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Atletico-MG matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Bahia's recent matches and 72% of Atletico-MG's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bahia run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Atletico-MG.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Atletico-MG 4-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 0.72 xG and Atletico-MG 1.41 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Bahia beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Atletico-MG attack 1.18 / defence 0.66, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 19% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 53%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 49%, Atletico-MG 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.