Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem and Charleroi meet at Elindus Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zulte Waregem have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Zulte Waregem have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Charleroi (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Charleroi are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) — Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Zulte Waregem, 3 for Charleroi and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Zulte Waregem 2–1 Charleroi — a Zulte Waregem win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zulte Waregem — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Charleroi — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 64% and Charleroi 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 59% | Charleroi 48%). Note also that Charleroi surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Zulte Waregem recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 0.882 / defence 1.199 | Charleroi attack 1.053 / defence 1.018. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.274. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 29 games and Charleroi's last 59.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 3.67 | Draw 4.04 | Charleroi 2.08. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 60% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 30 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Zulte Waregem 1.15 / Charleroi 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 0.882 / def 1.199 | Charleroi attack 1.053 / def 1.018 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Charleroi xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Zulte Waregem 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 30) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 27% chance of winning, Charleroi a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 0.88x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.05x) against Zulte Waregem's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 29 games and Charleroi's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
27%
3.67
25%
4.04
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
2.76
1.61
Charleroi xG
3.67
27%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
15%
6.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.61 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 25W 14D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 22W 15D 21L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Zulte Waregem against 1.40 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.86 PPG from their last 28 home games (16W 4D 8L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 10W 7D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.41 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 games (1.53 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 15D 21L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Charleroi away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.86 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Charleroi won Charleroi 3-0 Zulte Waregem on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zulte Waregem have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 2, Charleroi have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Zulte Waregem 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 61%, Charleroi 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Zulte Waregem) and 54% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Zulte Waregem's games and 61% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 54% of Charleroi's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 75% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zulte Waregem defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat Charleroi 1-0 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 1.15 xG and Charleroi 1.61 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Charleroi attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 27% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 48%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Zulte Waregem win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 59%, Charleroi 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zulte Waregem 1.53 PPG, Charleroi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.