Charleroi 0-2 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
OH Leuven (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Charleroi, 0.90 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Charleroi, 2 for OH Leuven and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 56% versus OH Leuven 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 47% | OH Leuven 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.78 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.127 / defence 1.179 | OH Leuven attack 0.893 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.281. OH Leuven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Charleroi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Charleroi games / 58 OH Leuven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | OH Leuven 3.45. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 50% | OH Leuven 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Charleroi 1.78 / OH Leuven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.127 / def 1.179 | OH Leuven attack 0.893 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.35
OH Leuven xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 0 - 2 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
Record (6 meetings): Charleroi 1W | Draws 3 | OH Leuven 2W.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
Charleroi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. OH Leuven (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 1.13x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (0.89x) against Charleroi's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.10
23%
4.27
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Charleroi xG
Total xG
3.13
1.35
OH Leuven xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
5%
20.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.35 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 26W 17D 25L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
OH Leuven's form line: 16W 25D 27L from 68 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Charleroi against 1.07 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.64 PPG from 33 outings (15W 9D 9L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 6W 9D 18L from 33 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
OH Leuven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 26W 17D 25L in their last 68 games (1.40 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 16W 25D 27L in their last 68 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.64 PPG; OH Leuven away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, OH Leuven 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 42% (OH Leuven).
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OH Leuven in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Charleroi's recent matches and 48% of OH Leuven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charleroi's recent games and 42% of OH Leuven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
OH Leuven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OH Leuven beat Charleroi 0-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 29, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.78 xG and OH Leuven 1.35 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.13 / defence 1.18 against OH Leuven attack 0.89 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 23% | OH Leuven 29%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual OH Leuven win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 47%, OH Leuven 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
OH Leuven's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.40 PPG, OH Leuven 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OH Leuven win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. OH Leuven (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.