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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Gent (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gent face Zulte Waregem.

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Match Analysis

Gent host Zulte Waregem at Planet Group Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Form Guide

Gent — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Zulte Waregem's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Gent are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gent register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zulte Waregem in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Gent have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Zulte Waregem have managed just 1 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 1–4 with Zulte Waregem winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Gent and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Gent trading profile (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Zulte Waregem trading profile (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gent 49% versus Zulte Waregem 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 56% | Zulte Waregem 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 2.15 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.199 / defence 1.031 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.971 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.293. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Gent's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Gent games / 28 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gent 57% | Draw 21% | Zulte Waregem 22%. Fair-value odds: Gent 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Zulte Waregem 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Gent (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gent at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.45 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Gent 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.

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