RAAL La Louvière 5-5 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this RAAL La Louvière vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Easi Arena plays host to RAAL La Louvière versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, RAAL La Louvière have posted 1W 5D 4L at Easi Arena — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Genk have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Genk arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for RAAL La Louvière, 0 for Genk and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Genk — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 57% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 47% | Genk 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 0.84 xG and Genk 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.568 / defence 0.930 | Genk attack 1.109 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.274. RAAL La Louvière's attack strength of 0.568 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 29 RAAL La Louvière games / 59 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 28% | Genk 48%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Genk 2.08. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: RAAL La Louvière 40% | Genk 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 28% | Genk 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG RAAL La Louvière 0.84 / Genk 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.568 / def 0.930 | Genk attack 1.109 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Genk (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Genk xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Genk kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Genk?
RAAL La Louvière 5 - 5 Genk.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Genk part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Genk is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 24% chance of winning, Genk a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Genk?
Record (1 meetings): RAAL La Louvière 0W | Draws 1 | Genk 0W.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Genk in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Genk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
RAAL La Louvière's attacking strength (0.57x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.11x) against RAAL La Louvière's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
24%
4.17
28%
3.52
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.16
1.31
Genk xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.50
20%
4.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.2 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.31 for Genk, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
RAAL La Louvière's recent record stands at 24W 20D 14L from 58 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five.
Genk, meanwhile, have gone 28W 13D 17L across 58 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for RAAL La Louvière against 1.67 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, RAAL La Louvière have managed 12W 10D 6L from 28 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genk's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.48 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Genk in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 24W 20D 14L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Genk have gone 28W 13D 17L in their last 58 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Genk away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 1.64 PPG; Genk away: 1.46 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Genk in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RAAL La Louvière
2
Draws
0
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Genk?
From 2 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 0, Genk have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when RAAL La Louvière 5-5 Genk.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 43%, Genk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (RAAL La Louvière) and 68% (Genk).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play Genk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of RAAL La Louvière's games and 75% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 68% of Genk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Genk tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RAAL La Louvière and Genk share the spoils in a 5-5 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 30, as RAAL La Louvière and Genk drew 5-5 in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 0.84 xG and Genk 1.31 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 5-5 for 10 actual goals. RAAL La Louvière beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk outscored their 1.31 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.57 / defence 0.93 against Genk attack 1.11 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 28% | Genk 48%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 47%, Genk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RAAL La Louvière 1.59 PPG, Genk 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genk (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.